Debtor-watchlist alerts on new UCC filings, or a normalized daily new-filings dataset, for small factors and MCA shops priced under the enterprise tools.
“Market-tested” means a real shipped product or experiment measured the failure directly (a live user count, a dead auction, a documented shutdown). “Predicted” means the verdict is an evidence-based forecast from the receipts below, not a direct measurement.
Small factors and MCA underwriters genuinely re-check UCC filings on debtors; the workflow pain is documented in factoring/lending communities. Demand for the function is real — the question is whether any tier is unserved.
The 'empty downmarket slot' is occupied: Baselayer serves 2,200+ financial institutions with 50-state real-time UCC monitoring, and NCS Credit and others sell flat-fee monitoring below the Wolters Kluwer/CSC enterprise layer. Partial state coverage is worth nothing to risk buyers — coverage is binary — and full coverage runs into the second wall: state bulk-data redistribution rights are unpublished, negotiated per-state contracts (precedents encountered: ~$12k/yr in South Carolina; ~$650/month for Washington bulk access), so the dataset version has both unverifiable legal footing and underwater unit economics before the first customer. These buyers are also reached by sales teams, not marketplaces.
If states published standardized, affordable resale terms for bulk UCC data, the dataset economics could be re-run honestly. The monitoring product would additionally need a wedge Baselayer-class incumbents do not already ship — 'cheaper' alone has no takers at partial coverage.
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